If there's hope for humanity it's in software

The Rule of Halves
Goff's Law Revisited

When I wrote the essay Goff's Law earlier this year, my primary purpose was to call attention to the incongruities between our aspirations for a knowledge-based world economy on the one hand, and the reality of a planet in which half of the adults cannot even read on the other. Such incongruities are troubling when juxtaposed to other realities implied by Metcalfe's Law (the potential value [connections] of an arbitrary network is the square of the number of nodes), which implies a need for all of mankind to participate directly in this network economy... we cannot even nearly approach a "maximum" potential unless we address the incongruities, which means facing a harsh reality as articulated by Goff's Law. A deeper "law" is implied, however; something easily summarized as "the Rule of Halves."

The Rule of Halves is very simple. For any population, by any measure, half will on one side of the median, half the other. It's a simple restatement of the definition of 'median' in statistics. But not unlike observations like the Golden Mean, or the Fibonacci Numbers, the Rule of Halves enjoys natural manifestations at all levels of organization.

Cardiologists speak of a rule of halves to explain why high blood pressure remains such a scourge. Half the sufferers, they say, go undetected. Half of those detected remain go untreated. And half of those that are treated remain uncontrolled. The same rule seems to apply to heart failure diagnosis and treatment. In terms of specifics dysfunctions, half of the patients are clinicaly asymptomatic or very midly symptomatic; a quarter has true heart failure, and another quarter has heart failure and is appropriately treated. In fact, arguably many maladies, such as cancer, heart disease, high blood pressure, strokes, diabetes and obesity, follow the rule of halves: For every patient identified to have the disease there is another in the community about to develop it.

The Rule of Halves applies to the successful staffing of volunteer projects. If you need 50 volunteers to pitch in for a day for a cause, any worthwhile cause, be sure to receive 100, "I'll definitely be there," phone confirmations the evening prior to the event. In art, the rule of halves is prevalent. For example, when drawing a human face, one can divide the face (beginning with an oval) with three lines; the first line divides the oval into two halves, the top and bottom. The second line divides the bottom quadrant into two more equal sections, and the third line divides the new bottom quadrant yet again. So we have the face divided into 1/2, 1/4 and 1/8...

From a mental health perspective, physicians estimate that half of all general practice patients may have some depressive symptoms. When confronted with such a diagnosis, half choose not to pursue a clinical remedy. While only 50% of people suffering from depression will actually seek medical treatment, only 50% of those who seek such treatment will be correctly diagnosed. Of that half only 50% will receive medication at a therapeutic level and of that 50% only half will actually complete the recommended course. The effect of the rule of halves (applied recursively) is that of every one hundred people suffering from depression only seven will effectively be treated. Accountants have a rule of halves for estimating annuity needs, tax consequences and estate planning. Venture capitalists have a rule of halves for innovative but risky investments. Athletes have a rule of halves for recovering from an injury.

Two points bear reflection:

1. The Rule of Halves is a phenomenon similar to the Golden Mean as a principle and pattern of natural organization and design.
2. When recursively applied to a population, the set defined by rule of halves will asymptotically equal the entire measured population.