What the hell happened? Just two years ago, the NASDAQ was worth three times what it is today,
the DJIA was flirting with 12,000 and SUNW was getting ready to split once again, the fifth time in
as many years, with a market cap of $US200+ billion and a trading range of $100-120. Today SUNW closed
at $4 and change, NASDAQ is below 1300, the DJIA is below 8,000 and everything is still headed south.
So what the hell happened?
Bush called it a "hangover," which implies some measure of past over indulgence, implying too that this too shall pass.
Of course he's right on both counts...but the innocuous flavor of a "hangover," as compared to other metaphorical
devices we might consider, tends to minimize the real impact of these most distasteful economic times on
the many good people of this land, and indeed, on this very planet.
Can you imagine the magnitude of greed that must be required in order to properly scam hundreds of
millions of dollars from publicly traded corporations? What men are these, that would so easily
steal, and with no apparent judicial consequences? Given the close quarters that tainted corporations
seem to have kept with the highest of governmental authorities, is it any wonder that not one person
from Enron has been charged with a crime? Nor one from Worldcom? Or even Andersen? The former
accounting giant was found guilty as a company, but no individual will ever serve time for the
loss of trillions of dollars, much of which can be traced to misleading and fraudulant behaviors over
a number of firms. How many high staffers, close to the White House, have soiled hands? If George W. Bush
does not take firm, aggressive action soon, including a complete investigation of his own vice president,
he will very likely be a one term president...and history may indeed repeat itself.
John Quincy Adams, the son of president John Adams, ran against a Tennesee son and won the
U.S. presidency in 1824. Much like the election of 2000, the 1824 race was not decided by popular vote
or without charges of impropriety. Gen. Andrew Jackson actually received more popular and electoral
votes, but the field was split with William H. Crawford and Henry Clay also receiving electoral votes.
Since no candidate had the proper majority, the race was decided among the top three candidates
by the House of Representatives. Clay threw his support to Adams, became Secretary of State the rest,
as they say, is history. Four years later Tennesee-son Andrew Jackson came storming back
with a campaign charging Adams and his cronies with corruption and public plunder. Given the
current state of economic affairs, the level of greed that seems to have infected many industries,
some of which are very close to the White House, is it so hard to imagine an Al Gore presidential
campaign with similar themes and outcome?
Two years ago the world was much wealthier. Two years from now, U.S. history may repeat a much longer cycle...
and in so doing, perhaps begin to repair the damage discovered on George W's watch;
fair or not, the era of George W. Bush will represent that profound economic damage in U.S. history.
So my prediction: unless George W. mends his ways and gets really aggressive with corporate
wrong-doer house cleaning, including his own V.P., congress will fall to the democrats with this
fall's election and Al Gore will be our next president in 2004.
If
there's hope for humanity it's in software