1.Dec.98

1 December 1998

An email pal of mine asked today who I thought had made the greatest impact on the 20th century and why. It was one of those questions that doesn't have a right or wrong answer, but is still interesting to consider. Perhaps in 500 years, humanity will be able to answer a question like that with great certainty, based on obvious developments that have by then occurred. The film "Bill and Ted's Excellent Adventure" utilized that unintended consequences theme as the basis for that yarn. Two unknown wannabe rock stars become the cultural icons for an advanced future society. From the perspective of that future, Bill and Ted were obviously those who had the greatest impact on this century.
Obviously, it depends on how you slice it. The greatest impact can mean a lot of different things. Argueably Henry Ford could be cited as one individual who has had considerable impact on the 20th century. The assembly line, the affordable automobile, the transformation of western cultures and economies, the orgnazing principle being that of transportation and the empowerment of individuals in moving themselves about. Mr. Ford has certainly had an impact.
Given my information technology bent, my answer would be a team: the three scientists at Bell Labs who invented the transistor. Dr. John Bardeen, Dr. Walter Brattain, and Dr. William Shockley, who discovered the transistor effect and developed the first device in December, 1947, while the three were members of thetechnical staff at Bell Laboratories in Murray Hill, NJ. To my way of thinking, these three men have had the greatest impact on the 20th Century.
Who made the greatest impact on the 15th Century? There were so many -- Columbus, Machiavelli, Martin Luther, Galleleo -- weren't these all and more of note? But when you think about "civilization" and the progress of thought and all that, you really have to give credit to Guttenburg for the printing press. In the early 1400s, there were maybe 300 bibles in the world, all of them copied by hand. The printing press was invented in 1452 or thereabouts -- and by the end of the century there were 20 million printed books in the world. Of all the thinkers, leaders, artists, or explorers, none shifted the cultural map so much as did the sudden ubiquity of the printed word. The word changed everything. The ubiquitious printed word was the technological foundation for the coming revolutions in religion, politics, science and commerce. But it was the ability to more easily give away words that was the thing of greatest impact.
And that's just what the transistor is to the 20th century. When the transistor was invented in 1947, there was something like 300 computers in the world (probably a lot less), all of them built by hand. I don't know the current numbers, but collectively it's a safe bet that we're deploying a lot more than 20 milion new computers per year of all shapes and sizes. Just as the printing press gave rise to the ubiquitious printed word, so is the transistor giving rise to the ubiquitious digital word. The information age was made possible by the transistor. And the information age is very rapidly transforming every aspect of human life. We feel its impact most here at the end of the 20th century. We see the next century, just ove the horizon, riddled with challenges and promise -- and we know for certain that it will be very different from the one we will soon celebrate ending.
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The Thanksgiving Holiday is over. My brother is still here, but plans on leaving tomorrow. It's been great seeing him and having family around, but I'm reminded of an old saying -- was it Mark Twain that said it? -- "Fish and house guests both start smelling after three days."
:)